KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

28%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

ICONNO 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.30u · ICON −75.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	89.0%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	41.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	4.2%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	66.4%	13.7%	16.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	83.9%	79.0%	81.6%	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	88.6%	43.9%	69.7%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	81.6%	81.1%	64.8%	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	3.3%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	88.0%	83.2%	44.2%	—	53.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	74.7%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	82.8%	67.0%	1.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	73.6%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	47.2%	1.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	1.0%	55.7%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.7%	26.3%	1.4%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	1.2%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.5%	12.8%	4.7%	—	7.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	1.4%	13.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	1.7%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	0.6%	4.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.8%	1.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.8%	2.6%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.3%	1.1%	0.9%	2.4%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	2.5%	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	3.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
AIFS Single	47%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.2228
WeatherNext 2	28%	72.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0762
National Blend	22%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0467
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0161
IFS HRES	3%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0007
ICON	2%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗