KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

10%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.8¢Risks 13.75u

ICONNO 86.2¢Risks 86.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.25u · ICON −86.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:28+00:00	85.4%	76.8%	83.8%	66.5%	86.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	85.4%	76.8%	85.8%	66.5%	86.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	85.4%	76.8%	85.8%	66.5%	86.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	85.4%	76.8%	85.8%	66.5%	86.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	85.4%	76.8%	85.8%	66.5%	86.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	81.5%	76.8%	85.8%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	81.5%	76.8%	85.8%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	81.5%	76.8%	85.8%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	81.5%	76.8%	85.8%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	81.5%	61.6%	69.7%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	81.5%	61.6%	69.7%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	81.5%	61.6%	69.7%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	81.5%	61.6%	69.7%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	69.3%	61.6%	69.5%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	69.5%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	69.5%	62.2%	80.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	69.5%	62.1%	80.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	80.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	80.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	69.3%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	80.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	85.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	85.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	85.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:07+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	67.8%	62.1%	85.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	67.8%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	76.7%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	76.7%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	78.5%	60.2%	76.7%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	49.2%	60.2%	76.7%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	49.2%	60.2%	76.7%	54.8%	85.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	28.6%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	28.6%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	28.6%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	11.8%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	11.8%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	11.8%	21.8%	79.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	11.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	11.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	11.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	11.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	11.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	17.5%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	20.4%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	20.4%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	20.4%	26.4%	9.8%	6.2%	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2992
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	26%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0697
AIFS Single	20%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0416
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0096
IFS HRES	6%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0038
ICON	1%	65.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗