KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

10%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.8¢Risks 13.75u

ICONNO 86.2¢Risks 86.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.25u · ICON −86.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	45.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	28.9%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	52.8%	7.4%	9.0%	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	73.4%	67.0%	70.3%	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	79.5%	29.6%	55.3%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	69.2%	68.4%	49.2%	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	1.2%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	77.5%	70.7%	28.6%	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	59.3%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	69.3%	50.0%	0.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	57.1%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.2%	29.7%	0.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.2%	37.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	13.1%	0.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.3%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	4.9%	1.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	5.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2992
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	26%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0697
AIFS Single	20%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0416
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0096
IFS HRES	6%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0038
ICON	1%	65.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗