KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

32%

20%

18%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u

HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.15u · HRES −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:35+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	41.2%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	81.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	44.8%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	72.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	44.8%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	72.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	44.8%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	72.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	44.8%	45.6%	68.6%	47.9%	72.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:28+00:00	44.8%	45.6%	68.6%	16.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	44.8%	18.5%	20.2%	16.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	44.8%	18.5%	20.2%	16.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	44.8%	18.5%	20.2%	16.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	20.2%	16.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	32.4%	18.5%	20.2%	16.4%	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	80.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5373
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2107
AIFS Single	32%	75.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1050
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0408
IFS Ensemble	18%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0342
IFS HRES	16%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0269

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗