KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

32%

20%

18%

16%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 44.9¢Risks 44.85u

HRESNO 55.1¢Risks 55.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.15u · HRES −55.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	39.8%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	77.5%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	23.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	45.8%	5.2%	6.5%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	67.0%	60.1%	63.6%	—	47.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	73.6%	23.4%	47.7%	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	61.8%	61.0%	41.3%	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.7%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	70.7%	63.1%	21.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	50.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	61.3%	41.3%	0.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	48.2%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	22.3%	0.3%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	28.4%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	8.6%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.1%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	2.8%	0.7%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	80.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5373
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2107
AIFS Single	32%	75.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1050
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0408
IFS Ensemble	18%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0342
IFS HRES	16%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0269

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗