KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

84%

68%

59%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

AIFSNO 21.3¢Risks 21.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.25u · AIFS −21.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:28+00:00	16.9%	4.1%	4.5%	49.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	16.9%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	16.9%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	16.9%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	5.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	30.5%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	54.3%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	54.3%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	54.3%	49.2%	4.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	54.3%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	54.3%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	54.3%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	54.3%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	54.3%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	52.6%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	58.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	41.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	41.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	48.3%	33.7%	41.5%	77.0%	92.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	41.5%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	41.5%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	41.5%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	41.5%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	41.5%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	75.0%	33.7%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	75.0%	64.0%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	75.0%	64.0%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	34.6%	63.8%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	34.6%	63.8%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:53+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	50.0%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	32.8%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	32.8%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	32.8%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	34.6%	63.0%	32.8%	93.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	72.8%	63.0%	32.8%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	72.8%	63.0%	32.8%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	72.8%	63.0%	32.8%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	72.8%	63.0%	32.8%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	72.8%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	72.8%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	72.8%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	61.0%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	92.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	70.6%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	70.6%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	70.6%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	70.6%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	70.6%	62.5%	57.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	70.6%	65.5%	74.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	70.6%	65.5%	74.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	70.6%	65.5%	74.1%	87.8%	98.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	71.4%	65.5%	74.1%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	74.1%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	74.1%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	74.1%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	74.1%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	71.4%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	73.0%	94.9%	98.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	73.0%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	69.7%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:23+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	74.1%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	68.6%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	68.6%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	67.1%	65.2%	68.6%	85.3%	98.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	61.9%	65.2%	68.6%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	61.9%	65.2%	68.6%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	61.9%	65.2%	68.6%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	61.9%	65.2%	68.6%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	61.9%	65.2%	68.6%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	61.9%	69.1%	85.7%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	61.9%	69.1%	85.7%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	61.9%	69.1%	85.7%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	57.0%	69.1%	85.7%	93.7%	98.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	57.1%	69.1%	85.7%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	85.7%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	85.7%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	93.7%	98.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	86.4%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	57.1%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	87.9%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	84.1%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	84.1%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	84.1%	91.5%	98.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	59.0%	67.5%	84.1%	91.5%	98.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0002
NWS forecast	98%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	92%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	85%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0222
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0253
IFS Ensemble	68%	71.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
AIFS Single	59%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1681

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗