KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

84%

68%

59%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

AIFSNO 21.3¢Risks 21.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +21.25u · AIFS −21.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	30.8%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	46.1%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	91.8%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	21.9%	77.0%	73.7%	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	8.7%	12.0%	10.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	5.6%	40.9%	18.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	9.7%	10.0%	21.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	92.4%	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	5.6%	8.3%	39.3%	—	30.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	13.7%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	8.3%	19.0%	96.2%	—	62.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	14.0%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	97.8%	34.7%	95.0%	—	84.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	96.8%	26.9%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	94.9%	55.8%	95.6%	—	88.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	96.0%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	95.1%	73.2%	87.7%	—	82.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	95.8%	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	97.2%	95.0%	70.8%	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.0%	94.0%	100.0%	—	95.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	98.8%	97.3%	87.9%	—	92.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	99.2%	96.5%	94.2%	—	93.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	97.5%	97.4%	96.3%	90.5%	96.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	99.5%	97.8%	98.8%	—	97.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	98.3%	94.7%	95.7%	90.5%	98.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	98.9%	98.0%	99.0%	—	98.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	99.3%	97.1%	98.5%	89.2%	97.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.1%	99.2%	97.8%	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.7%	97.8%	99.5%	84.8%	99.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	98.6%	99.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0002
NWS forecast	98%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	92%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0072
National Blend	85%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0222
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0253
IFS Ensemble	68%	71.5°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
AIFS Single	59%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1681

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗