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KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
66%
WN2
45%
ICON
14%
EPS
8%
HRES
7%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.40u
VS
HRESNO 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.60u · HRES −63.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00AIFS Single: 66.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 66.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00IFS HRES: 26.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0010-15 04:0110-15 09:2110-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:01:57+00:0061.9%42.7%39.4%26.6%17.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:0061.9%42.7%39.4%26.6%17.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:0061.9%42.7%49.0%26.6%17.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:0061.9%42.7%49.0%26.6%17.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:0061.9%42.7%49.0%26.6%17.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:0018.6%42.7%49.0%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0018.6%42.7%49.0%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0018.6%42.7%49.0%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:0018.6%42.7%49.0%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0018.6%42.7%49.0%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:0018.6%42.7%44.7%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:0018.6%8.1%44.7%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:0018.6%8.1%44.7%6.7%14.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:0066.1%8.1%44.7%6.7%14.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0066.1%8.1%44.7%6.7%14.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single66%78.4°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 245%76.0°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend40%75.0°F5.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
ICON14%71.3°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%72.3°F3.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%69.0°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗