KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

45%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

HRESNO 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.60u · HRES −63.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	55.8%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	19.8%	82.9%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	79.1%	33.0%	15.8%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	87.6%	85.6%	63.6%	—	68.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	79.5%	88.6%	60.6%	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	79.4%	90.3%	14.0%	—	35.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	21.8%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	4.3%	90.3%	1.5%	—	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	17.3%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	6.5%	82.2%	10.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	16.6%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	21.6%	9.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	13.2%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.7%	6.8%	5.6%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.0%	19.7%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.8%	10.8%	4.9%	—	5.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.5%	4.7%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.0%	6.6%	1.1%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.1%	10.2%	0.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.7%	8.1%	0.9%	3.8%	1.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.1%	8.2%	0.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	7.5%	0.6%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.0%	7.2%	0.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.1%	17.3%	0.9%	8.4%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.5%	13.2%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.6%	13.8%	0.4%	10.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	78.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	75.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	72.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗