KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.7¢Risks 17.70u

EPSNO 82.3¢Risks 82.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.30u · EPS −82.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	29.2%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	29.2%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	29.2%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	29.2%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	29.2%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	34.0%	2.3%	33.6%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	34.0%	2.8%	33.6%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	34.0%	2.8%	33.6%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	32.7%	2.8%	33.6%	37.6%	16.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	32.8%	2.8%	33.6%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	32.8%	2.8%	33.6%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	33.6%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	28.7%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	28.7%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	28.7%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	28.7%	37.6%	16.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	28.7%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	28.7%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	28.7%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	28.7%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:31+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	38.9%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	35.1%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	35.1%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	35.1%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	38.8%	2.5%	35.1%	27.4%	50.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	35.1%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	35.1%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	35.1%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	35.1%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	54.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	20.3%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	19.8%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	55.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	43.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	43.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	43.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:07+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	19.7%	26.1%	43.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	19.7%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	26.1%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:35+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	13.3%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	43.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	34.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	34.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	34.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	30.1%	21.4%	34.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:29+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	30.1%	3.1%	34.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	2.0%	3.1%	34.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	2.0%	3.1%	34.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	2.0%	3.1%	34.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	7.3%	0.5%	2.0%	3.1%	34.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	1.9%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	1.9%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	1.9%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	1.9%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	0.7%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	0.7%	3.1%	34.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	0.7%	3.1%	34.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	83.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1218
NWS forecast	14%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.0210
AIFS Single	7%	78.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0055
National Blend	6%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0036
IFS HRES	3%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0010
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗