KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.7¢Risks 17.70u

EPSNO 82.3¢Risks 82.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.30u · EPS −82.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	9.3%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.9%	28.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	21.9%	2.1%	0.5%	—	13.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	31.0%	27.9%	9.6%	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	18.4%	30.3%	7.3%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	16.4%	30.9%	0.2%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	27.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	14.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	83.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1218
NWS forecast	14%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.0210
AIFS Single	7%	78.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0055
National Blend	6%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0036
IFS HRES	3%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0010
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗