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KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
17%
AIFS
13%
WN2
10%
ICON
8%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.6¢Risks 4.32u
VS
EPSNO 91.3¢Risks 45.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.67u · EPS −45.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00ICON: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:58+00:0013.0%0.1%9.7%17.2%8.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:0013.0%0.1%9.7%17.2%8.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:0013.0%0.1%9.7%17.2%8.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:0013.0%0.1%9.7%17.2%8.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:0013.0%0.1%9.7%17.2%8.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES17%83.5°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.0296
AIFS Single13%83.2°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0169
WeatherNext 210%82.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.0094
ICON8%76.0°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.0072
National Blend4%78.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0017
IFS Ensemble<1%79.1°F3.2°F2026-10-11 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Jacksonville · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗