KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

46%

44%

41%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

EPSNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · EPS −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	90.4%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	90.4%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	91.8%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	91.8%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	91.8%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	88.8%	82.1%	91.8%	57.1%	65.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	91.8%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	91.8%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	91.8%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	91.8%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	87.9%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	90.9%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	93.1%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	93.1%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	93.1%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	90.1%	82.1%	93.1%	61.4%	66.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	90.4%	82.1%	93.1%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	90.4%	82.1%	93.1%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	90.4%	82.1%	93.1%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	90.4%	82.1%	93.1%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	90.4%	73.6%	89.6%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.4%	73.6%	89.6%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	90.4%	73.6%	89.6%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.4%	73.6%	89.6%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	89.5%	73.6%	89.6%	53.9%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	84.9%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	84.9%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	84.9%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	86.4%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	86.4%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	86.3%	41.4%	86.4%	44.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	86.4%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	86.4%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	86.4%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	86.4%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	86.4%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	85.7%	41.4%	84.1%	43.6%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	75.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗