KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

46%

44%

41%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

EPSNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · EPS −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	87.5%	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	73.8%	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	47.3%	96.5%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	88.5%	98.4%	41.6%	—	89.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	83.9%	98.8%	19.9%	—	76.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	54.6%	99.0%	70.4%	—	66.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	67.7%	79.4%	76.4%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	17.9%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	67.8%	79.3%	50.8%	—	71.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	61.0%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	50.9%	76.6%	53.5%	—	64.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	64.9%	91.2%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	65.3%	82.2%	39.1%	—	55.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	72.4%	73.2%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	58.7%	75.3%	28.7%	—	51.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	67.4%	75.9%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	60.2%	74.9%	45.9%	0.1%	54.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	68.4%	75.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	62.9%	77.8%	36.1%	—	46.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	63.3%	72.4%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	51.2%	75.8%	25.1%	0.1%	43.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	60.7%	76.6%	31.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	57.4%	82.6%	29.8%	65.8%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	60.2%	81.8%	24.8%	—	37.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	60.6%	71.6%	18.2%	63.2%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	74.7%	19.1%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	70.7%	78.8%	25.6%	73.2%	45.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	81.9%	19.2%	—	31.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	86%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	75.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗