KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

45%

35%

21%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.50u · HRES −61.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:55+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	74.4%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	74.4%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	76.0%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	76.0%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	76.0%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	76.6%	33.4%	76.0%	26.1%	56.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	76.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	76.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	76.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	76.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	54.8%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.9%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	43.6%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	56.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	55.2%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	55.2%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	55.2%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	55.2%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	55.2%	33.4%	66.0%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	55.2%	33.2%	60.6%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	55.2%	33.2%	60.6%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	55.2%	33.2%	60.6%	35.2%	32.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	61.1%	33.2%	60.6%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	61.2%	33.2%	60.6%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	60.6%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	60.6%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	60.6%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	61.2%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	32.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	45.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	45.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	45.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	65.7%	28.8%	45.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	65.7%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	50.9%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	51.7%	34.8%	56.4%	20.6%	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	45%	75.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	75.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗