KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

45%

35%

21%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.50u · HRES −61.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	22.8%	87.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	68.9%	92.3%	18.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	60.1%	93.6%	5.7%	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	25.8%	94.0%	40.9%	—	36.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	36.7%	50.8%	46.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	4.1%	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	35.3%	49.2%	20.7%	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	28.1%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	19.6%	43.9%	21.4%	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	30.2%	67.4%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	29.7%	50.0%	11.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	36.1%	37.0%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	22.5%	38.5%	6.2%	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	29.1%	38.2%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	21.9%	35.9%	12.8%	0.0%	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	27.9%	35.5%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	22.1%	37.1%	7.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	21.4%	29.6%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.7%	32.0%	3.3%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	17.5%	31.4%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	14.4%	37.7%	3.7%	19.9%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	15.0%	34.9%	2.4%	—	5.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	14.1%	22.0%	1.2%	15.7%	4.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	20.1%	23.2%	1.2%	—	5.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	18.2%	25.6%	1.8%	20.2%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	27.2%	0.9%	—	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	45%	75.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	75.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗