KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

40%

35%

21%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

HRESNO 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.35u · HRES −65.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	51.9%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	10.5%	73.5%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	48.6%	81.6%	7.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	38.5%	83.5%	1.7%	—	28.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	11.0%	83.5%	21.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	17.4%	28.1%	24.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	0.9%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	15.7%	25.8%	7.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	11.1%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	6.5%	20.8%	7.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	11.6%	41.1%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	11.0%	24.4%	2.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	14.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	6.8%	15.3%	1.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	9.6%	14.6%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.1%	12.8%	2.8%	0.0%	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	8.3%	12.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	5.6%	12.5%	1.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	5.1%	8.3%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.2%	9.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.3%	8.2%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	2.3%	10.6%	0.3%	3.7%	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.2%	8.7%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	3.7%	0.1%	2.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.0%	3.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.3%	4.0%	0.1%	2.7%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	71%	81.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	35%	76.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗