KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

41%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

AIFSNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.60u · AIFS −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	8.5%	4.1%	5.3%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	8.4%	4.1%	5.3%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	5.3%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	5.3%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	5.3%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	8.4%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	28.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	4.0%	33.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	4.0%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	13.3%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	6.6%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	7.0%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	7.0%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	12.8%	3.7%	7.0%	42.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	7.0%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	7.0%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	7.0%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	7.0%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	8.8%	3.7%	7.0%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	8.8%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	8.8%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	8.8%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	7.4%	7.4%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	5.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	4.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	4.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	4.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	7.4%	6.8%	4.5%	34.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	4.5%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	4.5%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	4.5%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	4.5%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	8.0%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	5.1%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	3.8%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	3.8%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	3.8%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	6.4%	6.8%	3.8%	30.3%	24.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	6.0%	6.8%	3.8%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	6.0%	6.8%	3.8%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	6.0%	6.8%	3.8%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	6.0%	6.8%	3.8%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	6.0%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	6.0%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	6.0%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	6.0%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	6.6%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	6.6%	12.3%	5.7%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	6.6%	24.8%	5.7%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	6.6%	24.8%	5.7%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	6.6%	24.8%	6.9%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	6.6%	24.8%	6.9%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	6.6%	24.8%	6.9%	36.6%	29.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	6.9%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	6.9%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	6.9%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	6.9%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	6.9%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	7.7%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	7.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	5.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	5.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	7.3%	24.8%	5.3%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	7.0%	24.8%	5.3%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	7.0%	24.8%	5.3%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	7.0%	24.8%	5.3%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	7.0%	24.8%	5.3%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	7.0%	24.8%	5.3%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	7.0%	28.6%	8.5%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	7.0%	28.6%	8.5%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	7.0%	28.6%	8.5%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	8.9%	28.6%	8.5%	44.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	8.9%	28.6%	8.5%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	8.5%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	8.5%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	8.5%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	7.4%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	7.4%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	8.9%	41.4%	7.4%	44.6%	45.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	7.4%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	7.4%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	7.4%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	7.4%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	7.4%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	9.0%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	9.3%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	43.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	4.2%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	4.2%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	4.2%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	4.2%	41.4%	8.5%	45.7%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗