KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

41%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

AIFSNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.60u · AIFS −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	9.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	21.2%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	2.4%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	1.1%	51.4%	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	12.0%	0.7%	74.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	38.0%	0.6%	23.4%	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	25.5%	15.4%	17.9%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	76.3%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	25.1%	15.2%	40.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	31.1%	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	40.5%	17.2%	37.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	27.1%	5.7%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	26.6%	12.4%	51.8%	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	20.3%	19.6%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	32.1%	17.7%	62.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	24.1%	17.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	30.3%	17.6%	43.9%	99.8%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	22.8%	16.9%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	27.3%	14.9%	53.3%	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	26.7%	19.0%	100.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	37.4%	16.0%	64.8%	99.7%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	28.3%	15.2%	57.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	30.9%	10.6%	58.7%	23.6%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	28.0%	10.9%	63.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	27.3%	18.2%	71.6%	25.1%	51.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	18.2%	15.6%	70.0%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	18.2%	12.2%	61.4%	16.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	9.9%	68.9%	—	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗