KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

36%

32%

31%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

ICONNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · ICON −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:58+00:00	73.3%	75.2%	86.4%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	73.3%	75.2%	86.4%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	73.3%	75.2%	85.9%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	73.3%	75.2%	85.9%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	73.3%	75.2%	85.9%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.9%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.9%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.9%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.9%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.9%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	55.2%	75.2%	85.8%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	55.2%	59.9%	85.8%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	55.2%	59.9%	85.8%	54.8%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	77.1%	59.9%	85.8%	54.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	77.1%	59.9%	85.8%	54.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	85.2%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	85.2%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	85.2%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	84.8%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	69.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	87.9%	54.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	87.9%	57.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	81.2%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	85.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	88.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	88.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	82.8%	70.0%	88.8%	57.5%	75.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	84.2%	70.0%	88.8%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	84.2%	70.0%	88.8%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	84.2%	70.0%	88.8%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	84.2%	70.0%	88.8%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	84.2%	70.0%	88.8%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	84.2%	69.1%	90.2%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	84.2%	69.1%	90.2%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	84.2%	69.1%	90.2%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	82.0%	69.1%	90.2%	53.2%	65.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	82.0%	69.1%	90.1%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	90.1%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	90.1%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	89.6%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	89.6%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	89.6%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	89.6%	53.2%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	89.1%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	90.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	90.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	90.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	83.7%	71.3%	90.6%	47.6%	61.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	86.9%	71.3%	90.6%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	86.9%	71.3%	90.6%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	86.9%	71.3%	90.6%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	86.9%	71.3%	90.6%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	86.9%	47.8%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	86.9%	47.8%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	86.9%	47.8%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	86.9%	47.8%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	83.2%	47.9%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	83.2%	47.9%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	83.2%	37.2%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	83.2%	37.2%	89.9%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	83.2%	37.2%	89.4%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	83.2%	37.2%	89.4%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	83.2%	37.2%	89.4%	48.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	81.3%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	81.9%	37.2%	89.4%	58.9%	43.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	86.1%	37.2%	89.4%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	86.1%	37.2%	89.4%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	86.1%	37.2%	89.4%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	86.1%	37.2%	89.4%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	86.1%	37.2%	89.4%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	86.1%	41.0%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	86.1%	41.0%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	86.1%	41.0%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	83.2%	41.0%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	83.3%	41.0%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	90.2%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	62.4%	36.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.7%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	83.3%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	85.6%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	85.6%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	85.6%	31.6%	87.1%	35.7%	30.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	75.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	74.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗