KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

36%

32%

31%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

ICONNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · ICON −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	37.9%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	36.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	68.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	24.9%	91.8%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	57.0%	83.8%	3.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	56.6%	65.7%	37.1%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	61.3%	59.1%	30.3%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	52.4%	57.9%	28.8%	—	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	0.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	62.3%	50.0%	25.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	40.7%	62.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	51.7%	61.3%	43.0%	—	47.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	48.2%	69.0%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	47.2%	64.4%	47.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	41.5%	63.0%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	43.2%	68.7%	56.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	32.6%	68.3%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	35.9%	62.2%	31.2%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	40.6%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	40.3%	44.5%	38.2%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	34.6%	45.5%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	33.1%	59.2%	26.0%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	50.0%	58.4%	23.4%	—	30.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	50.0%	74.4%	34.2%	79.2%	35.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	65.1%	36.1%	—	37.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	75.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	74.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗