KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

38%

27%

17%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

EPSNO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.85u · EPS −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:55+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	80.4%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	80.4%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	77.3%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	77.3%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	77.3%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	71.1%	40.1%	77.3%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	77.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	77.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	77.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	77.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	73.6%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	75.3%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	74.2%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	71.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	74.7%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	74.7%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	74.7%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	74.7%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	74.7%	40.1%	80.4%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	78.9%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	78.9%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	78.9%	51.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:12+00:00	79.6%	51.9%	78.9%	47.2%	63.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	79.6%	51.9%	78.9%	47.2%	63.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	79.3%	18.1%	79.0%	27.1%	21.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	79.3%	18.1%	79.0%	27.1%	21.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	79.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	21.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	79.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	21.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	79.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	21.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	81.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	26.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	81.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	26.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	81.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	26.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	81.3%	18.1%	79.9%	27.1%	26.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00	81.3%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	81.3%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	81.3%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	81.3%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	81.4%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	81.4%	16.9%	80.5%	38.3%	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	81.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	80.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗