KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

38%

27%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

EPSNO 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.90u · EPS −51.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	32.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	62.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	19.8%	88.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	50.0%	79.1%	2.1%	—	42.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	49.3%	58.7%	30.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	53.8%	51.5%	23.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	44.4%	50.0%	22.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.1%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	54.2%	41.7%	19.5%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	32.6%	54.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	43.0%	52.6%	34.6%	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	39.3%	60.7%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.2%	55.5%	38.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	53.8%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	33.9%	59.6%	47.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	24.1%	58.9%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	26.8%	52.1%	22.7%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	30.7%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.1%	34.1%	28.2%	—	28.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	24.9%	34.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	23.3%	47.7%	17.5%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	38.1%	46.4%	15.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	37.7%	63.4%	23.6%	69.2%	24.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	52.6%	24.8%	—	25.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	81.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	80.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	78.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	75.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	75.1°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗