KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

60%

54%

30%

30%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

HRESNO 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.65u · HRES −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:29+00:00	68.5%	62.4%	73.6%	34.7%	40.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	64.1%	34.7%	40.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	64.1%	34.7%	40.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	68.5%	30.2%	64.1%	34.7%	40.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	64.1%	34.7%	40.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	64.0%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	64.0%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	64.0%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	64.0%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	67.7%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	67.7%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	67.7%	34.7%	40.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	67.7%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	67.7%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	67.7%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	67.7%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	67.7%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	55.0%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	53.5%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	53.5%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	53.5%	30.2%	69.1%	29.6%	60.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	69%	82.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	82.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	78.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	76.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗