KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

60%

54%

30%

30%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

HRESNO 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.65u · HRES −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	22.7%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	20.6%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	11.8%	81.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	36.2%	67.7%	0.9%	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	35.0%	44.2%	18.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	38.7%	36.5%	13.8%	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	29.5%	34.5%	12.3%	—	26.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	37.7%	26.5%	10.1%	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	19.0%	37.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	26.9%	35.4%	20.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	23.5%	42.9%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	22.3%	37.3%	22.3%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	17.7%	35.2%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	18.3%	40.4%	28.7%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	11.4%	39.1%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	12.8%	32.1%	10.3%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	15.0%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	14.3%	16.9%	13.1%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	10.7%	16.8%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	9.4%	26.0%	6.5%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	18.3%	24.4%	5.1%	—	7.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	17.4%	38.9%	8.9%	45.0%	9.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	28.0%	9.2%	—	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	69%	82.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	82.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	80.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	78.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	76.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗