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KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
20%
ICON
18%
EPS
4%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u
VS
WN2NO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · WN2 −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0010-19 05:1610-19 22:4610-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:001.9%2.2%0.3%8.9%14.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:001.9%2.2%0.3%8.9%14.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:001.9%2.2%0.3%8.9%14.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:001.4%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:001.1%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:001.1%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:001.1%4.5%0.3%19.7%18.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES20%75.0°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON18%74.7°F3.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%75.4°F2.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%76.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single1%80.8°F4.0°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%80.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 19 · 05:16 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗