KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u

WN2NO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · WN2 −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	33.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	33.0%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	9.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	43.3%	1.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	14.5%	3.1%	83.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	14.0%	9.3%	27.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	10.7%	11.8%	33.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	14.5%	11.5%	33.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	98.1%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	8.7%	14.8%	34.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	20.1%	8.2%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	12.7%	8.3%	17.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	14.0%	5.2%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	13.9%	6.3%	13.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	16.5%	6.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	14.7%	4.4%	8.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	21.1%	4.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.6%	5.5%	21.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	13.8%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	13.1%	10.9%	14.3%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	15.4%	9.7%	100.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	15.3%	4.5%	20.7%	99.6%	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	6.6%	4.3%	21.6%	—	16.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	5.9%	1.3%	12.4%	0.9%	11.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	2.2%	10.3%	—	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	20%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	74.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	75.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 19 · 05:16 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗