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KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
92%
ICON
71%
HRES
55%
EPS
45%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 69.1¢Risks 69.10u
VS
EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.90u · EPS −30.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 92.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:0093.3%44.7%94.6%59.7%76.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:0091.7%44.7%94.6%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:0091.7%44.7%94.6%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:0091.7%44.7%94.6%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:0091.7%44.7%94.6%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:0091.7%44.7%94.6%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:0091.7%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:0091.7%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:0091.7%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:0092.1%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:0092.1%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0092.1%44.7%93.5%55.4%70.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%79.6°F3.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single92%80.5°F4.3°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON71%76.7°F4.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend56%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES55%75.1°F4.5°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%74.2°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗