KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

71%

55%

45%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.1¢Risks 69.10u

EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.90u · EPS −30.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	87.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	76.4%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	2.3%	57.4%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	70.2%	56.3%	2.2%	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	87.6%	67.0%	44.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	87.8%	36.5%	58.3%	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	86.9%	61.8%	44.4%	—	60.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	0.4%	71.7%	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	82.2%	70.7%	62.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	58.5%	64.2%	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	67.8%	79.8%	58.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	77.1%	74.3%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	67.8%	79.1%	39.1%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	76.9%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	70.4%	68.7%	52.9%	—	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	60.9%	64.7%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	65.1%	69.7%	40.8%	—	44.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	69.3%	66.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	78.7%	78.7%	46.7%	74.5%	58.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	85.2%	0.0%	—	57.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	79.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	76.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	74.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗