KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

33%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.6¢Risks 21.65u

EPSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.35u · EPS −78.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	36.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	36.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	36.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	22.1%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	16.8%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	16.8%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	32.8%	0.0%	16.8%	11.2%	43.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:12+00:00	36.2%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	36.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	44.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	16.8%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	22.0%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	20.2%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	20.2%	5.4%	43.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	32.9%	0.0%	20.2%	5.4%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	43%	84.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	83.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	81.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	74.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 05:10 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗