KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.15u · WN2 −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	0.1%	18.9%	5.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	0.1%	18.9%	5.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	0.1%	18.9%	5.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.3%	12.6%	4.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	1.0%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	0.9%	4.9%	0.3%	15.1%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	15%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	76.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	74.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 05:17 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗