KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.15u · WN2 −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	8.5%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	90.7%	19.4%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	10.9%	19.4%	90.4%	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	12.0%	27.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.7%	33.7%	16.4%	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.7%	13.6%	25.5%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	96.4%	8.2%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.9%	8.3%	12.5%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	14.2%	11.1%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	4.3%	13.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.3%	4.1%	25.9%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	4.6%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	6.5%	7.2%	14.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	7.8%	6.1%	21.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.8%	6.8%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.9%	2.9%	15.5%	4.0%	9.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	1.5%	100.0%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	15%	75.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	76.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	74.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	80.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 19 · 05:17 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗