KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

79%

45%

41%

35%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

EPSNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.95u · EPS −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	83.6%	48.4%	79.8%	31.4%	58.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	83.6%	48.4%	74.7%	31.4%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	83.6%	48.4%	74.7%	31.4%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	83.6%	48.4%	74.7%	31.4%	58.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:52+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	74.7%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	74.7%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	74.7%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	74.7%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	80.7%	48.4%	74.7%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	80.7%	55.4%	80.9%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	80.7%	55.4%	80.9%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	80.7%	55.4%	80.9%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	85.3%	55.4%	80.9%	56.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	85.4%	55.4%	80.9%	56.2%	55.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	77.9%	41.4%	76.0%	40.4%	64.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	77.9%	41.4%	76.0%	40.4%	64.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	77.9%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	64.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	77.9%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	64.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	77.9%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	64.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	86.7%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	86.7%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	86.7%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	86.7%	41.4%	74.4%	40.4%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00	86.7%	35.4%	79.0%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	86.7%	35.4%	79.0%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	86.7%	35.4%	79.0%	45.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	86.7%	35.4%	79.0%	45.2%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	71.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗