KJAX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

79%

45%

41%

35%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

EPSNO 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.90u · EPS −38.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	83.6%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	14.3%	82.9%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	23.5%	73.7%	8.2%	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	46.4%	62.3%	68.3%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	34.4%	90.3%	57.6%	—	44.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	35.9%	60.3%	26.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	7.6%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	46.7%	43.4%	22.5%	—	40.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	28.1%	56.8%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	26.9%	45.6%	30.7%	79.2%	38.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	71.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗