KJAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

84%

55%

47%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

EPSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.65u · EPS −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:37+00:00	70.5%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	70.5%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	70.5%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	70.5%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	82.2%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	82.2%	60.3%	62.3%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	82.2%	48.4%	62.3%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	82.2%	48.4%	62.3%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	82.2%	48.4%	65.9%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	82.2%	48.4%	65.9%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	82.2%	48.4%	65.9%	24.8%	19.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	70.5%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	68.8%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	70.1%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	70.1%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	64.9%	48.4%	70.1%	56.8%	62.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:52+00:00	77.6%	48.4%	70.1%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	77.6%	48.4%	70.1%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	77.6%	48.4%	70.1%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	77.6%	48.4%	70.1%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	77.6%	48.4%	70.1%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	77.6%	36.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	77.6%	36.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	77.6%	36.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	80.8%	36.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	80.8%	36.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	74.7%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	81.0%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	81.0%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	80.8%	25.6%	81.0%	29.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	81.0%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	81.0%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	81.0%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	81.0%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	81.0%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	81.8%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	82.1%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	82.3%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	78.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	89.9%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	84.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	89.9%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	84.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	89.9%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	84.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	89.9%	25.6%	84.3%	33.5%	84.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:17+00:00	89.9%	46.8%	85.8%	54.8%	84.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	89.9%	46.8%	85.8%	54.8%	84.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	89.9%	46.8%	85.8%	54.8%	84.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	89.9%	46.8%	85.8%	54.8%	84.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	78.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	76.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	78.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	73.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	72.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗