KJAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

85%

55%

47%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

EPSNO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.65u · EPS −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	56.6%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	58.4%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	1.3%	54.0%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	39.6%	56.3%	23.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.4%	65.7%	19.9%	—	37.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	64.9%	61.3%	33.0%	—	41.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	75.8%	89.2%	35.9%	54.8%	47.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	78.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	76.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	78.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	73.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	72.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗