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KJAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
AIFS
58%
WN2
55%
HRES
16%
ICON
15%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u
VS
ICONNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.20u · ICON −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:0057.6%80.8%55.1%16.1%14.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0057.6%80.8%55.1%16.1%14.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0057.6%80.8%55.1%16.1%14.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0057.6%80.8%55.1%16.1%14.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%76.5°F2.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%75.6°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%75.2°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend54%75.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON15%64.1°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗