KJAX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

58%

55%

16%

15%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

ICONNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.20u · ICON −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	44.6%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	45.5%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.5%	40.6%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	26.9%	42.3%	13.7%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	39.9%	51.5%	11.3%	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	50.0%	46.2%	20.5%	—	27.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	61.8%	80.0%	22.4%	39.0%	32.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	68.8%	—	—	34.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	76.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	75.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	68.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	64.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗