KJAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

69%

67%

39%

13%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

EPSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.55u · EPS −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:52+00:00	68.1%	24.8%	68.2%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	68.1%	24.8%	68.2%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	68.1%	24.8%	68.2%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	68.1%	24.8%	68.2%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	68.1%	24.8%	68.2%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	68.1%	19.4%	62.3%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	68.1%	19.4%	62.3%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	68.1%	19.4%	62.3%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	69.9%	19.4%	62.3%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	69.9%	19.4%	62.3%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	62.3%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	62.3%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	62.3%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	36.6%	38.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	75.4%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	69.9%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	68.7%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	68.7%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	68.7%	12.9%	76.0%	39.0%	67.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	79.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	78.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	79.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	73.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	72.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗