KJAX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

69%

67%

39%

13%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

EPSNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.55u · EPS −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	23.1%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	10.2%	82.0%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	48.6%	49.3%	4.9%	—	33.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	52.9%	70.3%	24.9%	9.6%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	79.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	78.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	79.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	73.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	72.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗