KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

66%

56%

48%

26%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	75.8%	29.7%	44.1%	66.5%	73.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	44.1%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	44.1%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	44.1%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	44.1%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	59.2%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	56.5%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	56.5%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	56.5%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	56.5%	29.7%	26.7%	58.9%	60.9%
2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00	65.8%	48.0%	41.8%	85.3%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	65.8%	48.0%	55.5%	85.3%	25.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	65.8%	48.0%	55.5%	85.3%	25.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	65.8%	48.0%	55.5%	85.3%	25.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	65.8%	48.0%	55.5%	85.3%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0216
AIFS Single	66%	79.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1170
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1945
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1980
IFS Ensemble	48%	77.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2704
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗