KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

66%

56%

48%

26%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	22.8%	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	73.0%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	71.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	72.0%	63.1%	13.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	69.6%	70.9%	53.6%	—	26.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	64.9%	71.7%	61.3%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	57.1%	73.9%	48.4%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	72.1%	63.1%	57.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	9.5%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	50.0%	56.1%	68.6%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	50.9%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	37.3%	49.1%	76.3%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	42.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	67.0%	37.6%	72.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	58.9%	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	54.1%	39.8%	68.8%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	33.5%	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	54.4%	4.0%	76.2%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	61.1%	33.6%	0.9%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	64.8%	7.6%	82.5%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	28.3%	13.2%	35.9%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	51.2%	2.6%	46.3%	3.0%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	43.6%	1.5%	38.5%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	36.8%	4.3%	77.0%	46.0%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	25.3%	1.3%	65.0%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	20.2%	3.7%	22.2%	42.8%	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	4.4%	2.2%	53.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	20.3%	4.1%	43.7%	42.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	25.4%	2.6%	38.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0216
AIFS Single	66%	79.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1170
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1945
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1980
IFS Ensemble	48%	77.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2704
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗