KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

57%

49%

27%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:02:08+00:00	55.0%	3.1%	31.4%	31.2%	65.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	55.0%	3.1%	31.4%	31.2%	65.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	55.0%	3.1%	42.8%	31.2%	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	55.0%	3.1%	42.8%	31.2%	65.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	55.0%	3.1%	42.8%	31.2%	65.0%
2026-10-12T07:49:13+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	42.8%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	42.8%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	42.8%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	42.8%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	42.8%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	38.1%	3.1%	25.5%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	38.1%	3.8%	25.5%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	38.1%	3.8%	25.5%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	52.3%	3.8%	25.5%	35.2%	62.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	52.3%	4.0%	25.6%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	52.3%	4.0%	25.6%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	52.3%	2.4%	25.6%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	52.3%	2.4%	37.1%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	52.3%	2.4%	37.1%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	52.3%	2.4%	37.1%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	52.3%	2.4%	37.1%	35.2%	62.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	37.1%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	37.1%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	37.1%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	37.1%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	58.9%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	59.7%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	59.7%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	59.7%	2.4%	52.6%	46.4%	58.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	50.8%	2.0%	23.3%	39.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	50.8%	2.0%	23.3%	39.9%	46.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	50.8%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	46.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	50.8%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	46.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	50.8%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	46.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	59.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	59.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	59.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	25.6%	39.9%	59.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	25.6%	49.3%	59.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	27.2%	49.3%	59.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	27.2%	49.3%	59.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	52.4%	2.0%	27.2%	49.3%	59.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	57.2%	2.0%	27.2%	49.3%	59.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	57.2%	2.0%	27.2%	49.3%	59.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	59%	82.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3528
AIFS Single	57%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.3272
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS HRES	49%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2430
National Blend	42%	81.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1806
WeatherNext 2	27%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0740
IFS Ensemble	2%	74.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗