KLAS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

57%

49%

27%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	8.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	45.1%	35.6%	3.3%	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	41.3%	42.7%	26.0%	—	8.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	35.1%	42.4%	31.6%	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	26.8%	43.6%	20.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	40.1%	30.8%	25.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	1.5%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	19.0%	23.4%	34.6%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	19.0%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	10.6%	17.2%	41.8%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	12.7%	19.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	29.6%	9.8%	34.8%	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	21.9%	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	17.6%	9.8%	29.4%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	6.8%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	16.2%	0.2%	35.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	19.8%	6.0%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	21.5%	0.5%	40.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.7%	1.0%	5.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.2%	0.1%	8.9%	0.1%	1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.2%	0.0%	5.6%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.6%	0.1%	27.3%	7.4%	2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.0%	0.0%	15.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.1%	0.1%	1.3%	5.1%	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	7.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.8%	0.0%	4.1%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	2.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	59%	82.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3528
AIFS Single	57%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.3272
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS HRES	49%	81.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2430
National Blend	42%	81.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1806
WeatherNext 2	27%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0740
IFS Ensemble	2%	74.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗