KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

77%

70%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.4¢Risks 73.45u

ICONNO 26.6¢Risks 26.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.55u · ICON −26.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	60.2%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	60.2%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	62.6%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	62.6%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	62.6%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	75.5%	70.0%	62.6%	84.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	62.6%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	62.6%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	62.6%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	62.6%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	84.4%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	78.5%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	78.5%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	78.5%	70.0%	77.1%	90.2%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	82.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0096
AIFS Single	78%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0462
WeatherNext 2	77%	79.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0524
IFS Ensemble	70%	79.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0900
ICON	57%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1875
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗