KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

77%

70%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.4¢Risks 73.45u

ICONNO 26.6¢Risks 26.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.55u · ICON −26.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	23.7%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	37.2%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	8.8%	83.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	75.4%	85.9%	10.2%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	68.3%	76.3%	62.9%	—	53.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	77.2%	83.1%	87.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	62.5%	64.8%	76.4%	—	43.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	46.7%	74.9%	86.2%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	14.2%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	72.4%	74.5%	83.9%	—	43.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	72.9%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	70.3%	71.8%	88.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	61.2%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	53.9%	49.0%	87.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	58.0%	57.0%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	60.2%	57.2%	91.4%	—	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	42.6%	53.2%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	67.9%	53.3%	66.9%	0.0%	56.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	61.1%	48.9%	0.3%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	60.4%	58.1%	72.0%	57.0%	62.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	48.8%	61.9%	79.2%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	65.8%	48.8%	47.5%	—	61.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	57.7%	53.9%	73.1%	—	60.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	68.1%	60.6%	85.9%	60.6%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	75.8%	51.4%	84.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	75.5%	51.4%	77.8%	45.7%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	74.0%	54.5%	80.8%	—	61.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	76.2%	43.7%	82.9%	62.4%	59.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	80.8%	40.2%	78.5%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	82.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0096
AIFS Single	78%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0462
WeatherNext 2	77%	79.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0524
IFS Ensemble	70%	79.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0900
ICON	57%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1875
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗