KLAS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.2¢Risks 10.25u

EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 89.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.75u · EPS −89.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	11.8%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	11.8%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	11.8%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	11.8%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	9.9%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	9.9%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	9.9%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	16.8%	0.0%	9.9%	16.0%	35.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:27+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	9.9%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	9.9%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	9.9%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	9.9%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	12.1%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	5.8%	20.5%	20.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	20%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0420
ICON	20%	83.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0420
NWS forecast	17%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0299
AIFS Single	11%	83.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0130
WeatherNext 2	6%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0034
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0006
IFS Ensemble	<1%	75.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 01:59 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Las Vegas · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗