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KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
99%
EPS
97%
AIFS
96%
WN2
95%
ICON
83%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 91.0¢Risks 45.48u
VS
ICONNO 9.1¢Risks 4.53u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.53u · ICON −4.53u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00IFS HRES: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS HRES: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00ICON: 38.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00ICON: 83.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:40+00:0092.8%88.0%88.2%98.5%38.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:0092.8%88.0%88.2%98.5%38.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:0092.8%88.0%88.2%98.5%38.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0092.8%88.0%88.2%98.5%38.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:0095.6%88.0%88.2%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:0095.6%88.0%88.2%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:0095.6%88.0%88.2%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0095.6%88.0%88.2%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0095.6%88.0%88.2%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:0095.6%97.3%94.9%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:0095.6%97.3%94.9%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:0095.6%97.3%94.9%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:0095.6%97.3%94.9%98.8%83.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:0095.6%97.1%94.9%98.8%83.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES99%84.6°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%81.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%81.8°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 295%80.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON83%78.3°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend71%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗