KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

96%

95%

83%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 91.0¢Risks 45.48u

ICONNO 9.1¢Risks 4.53u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.53u · ICON −4.53u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	40.1%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	42.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	18.9%	18.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	74.3%	26.9%	19.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	82.0%	88.0%	76.8%	—	58.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	63.5%	80.0%	93.5%	—	69.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	9.3%	75.8%	57.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	87.1%	83.8%	93.2%	—	67.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	20.8%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	33.8%	81.0%	89.5%	—	62.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	9.6%	75.8%	—	—	76.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	23.7%	83.4%	88.5%	—	82.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	59.4%	76.9%	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	77.5%	76.0%	92.1%	—	86.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	56.0%	64.7%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	67.9%	74.9%	98.5%	0.0%	87.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	61.5%	82.4%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	65.9%	87.5%	97.1%	—	90.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	31.5%	87.1%	3.3%	—	91.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	76.7%	91.5%	98.2%	0.0%	94.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	91.3%	88.6%	98.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	90.5%	90.5%	98.5%	89.4%	94.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	92.8%	93.2%	99.0%	—	90.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	92.6%	93.9%	99.5%	93.0%	86.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	97.5%	90.8%	98.4%	—	79.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	98.5%	94.5%	99.2%	89.8%	91.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	93.5%	98.6%	—	94.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	99%	84.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	81.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗