KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

71%

69%

61%

22%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00	72.0%	71.3%	39.5%	92.4%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	72.0%	71.3%	57.1%	92.4%	26.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	72.0%	71.3%	57.1%	92.4%	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	72.0%	71.3%	57.1%	92.4%	26.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	72.0%	71.3%	57.1%	92.4%	26.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00	69.8%	71.3%	57.1%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	69.8%	71.3%	57.1%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	69.8%	71.3%	57.1%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	69.8%	71.3%	57.1%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	69.8%	69.5%	57.7%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	69.8%	69.5%	57.7%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	69.8%	69.5%	57.7%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	69.8%	69.5%	57.7%	89.3%	14.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	67.1%	68.9%	57.7%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	67.1%	68.9%	57.7%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	67.1%	69.0%	57.7%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	67.1%	69.0%	57.7%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	67.1%	69.0%	42.3%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	67.1%	69.0%	42.3%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	67.1%	69.0%	42.3%	89.3%	14.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	42.3%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	42.3%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	42.3%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	42.3%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	42.3%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	73.1%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	71.4%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	71.4%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	71.4%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	71.4%	69.0%	61.4%	92.1%	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	81.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	79.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	22%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗